Hybrid European MV-LV Network Models for Smart Distribution Network Modelling

A pair of European-style, integrated MV-LV circuits are presented, created by combining generic MV and real LV networks. The two models have 86,000 and 113,000 nodes, and are made readily available for download in the OpenDSS file format. Primary substation tap change controls and MV-LV feeders are represented as three-phase unbalanced distribution network models, capturing the coupling of voltages at the MV level. The assumptions made in constructing the models are outlined, including a preconditioning step that reduces the number of nodes by more than five times without affecting the solution. Two flexibility-based case studies are presented, with TSO-DSO and peer-peer-based smart controls considered. The demonstration of the heterogeneous nature of these systems is corroborated by the analysis of measured LV voltage data. The models are intended to aid the development of algorithms for maximising the benefits of smart devices within the context of whole energy systems

Hourly historical and near-future weather and climate variables for energy system modelling

Energy systems are becoming increasingly exposed to the impacts of weather and climate due to the uptake of renewable generation and the electrification of the heat and transport sectors. The need for high-quality meteorological data to manage present and near-future risks is urgent. This paper provides a comprehensive set of multi-decadal, time series of hourly meteorological variables and weather-dependent power system components for use in the energy systems modelling community. Despite the growing interest in the impacts of climate variability and climate change on energy systems over the last decade, it remains rare for multi-decadal simulations of meteorological data to be used within detailed simulations. This is partly due to computational constraints, but also due to technical barriers limiting the use of meteorological data by non-specialists. This paper presents a new European-level dataset which can be used to investigate the impacts of climate variability and climate change on multiple aspects of near-future energy systems. The datasets correspond to a suite of well-documented, easy-to-use, self-consistent, hourly- and nationally aggregated, and sub-national time series for 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, 100 m wind speed, surface solar irradiance, wind power capacity factor, solar power factor, and degree days spanning over 30 European countries. This dataset is available for the historical period 1950–2020 and is accessible from https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000321 (Bloomfield and Brayshaw, 2021a). As well as this a companion dataset is created where the ERA5 reanalysis is adjusted to represent the impacts of near-term climate change (centred on the year 2035) based on five high-resolution climate model simulations. These data are available for a 70-year period for central and northern Europe. The data are accessible from https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000331 (Bloomfield and Brayshaw, 2021b). To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a comprehensive set of high-quality hourly time series relating to future climate projections has been published, which is specifically designed to support the energy sector. The purpose of this paper is to detail the methods required for processing the climate model data and illustrate the importance of accounting for climate variability and climate change within energy system modelling from the sub-national to European scale. While this study is therefore not intended to be an exhaustive analysis of climate impacts, it is hoped that publishing these data will promote greater use of climate data within energy system modelling.</p

Prehospital randomised assessment of a mechanical compression device in cardiac arrest (PaRAMeDIC) trial protocol

Background Survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is closely linked to the quality of CPR, but in real life, resuscitation during pre-hospital care and ambulance transport is often suboptimal. Mechanical chest compression devices deliver consistent chest compressions, are not prone to fatigue and could potentially overcome some of the limitations of manual chest compression. However, there is no high-quality evidence that they improve clinical outcomes, or that they are cost effective. The Pre-hospital Randomised Assessment of a Mechanical Compression Device In Cardiac Arrest (PARAMEDIC) trial is a pragmatic cluster randomised study of the LUCAS-2 device in adult patients with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Methods The primary objective of this trial is to evaluate the effect of chest compression using LUCAS-2 on mortality at 30 days post out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, compared with manual chest compression. Secondary objectives of the study are to evaluate the effects of LUCAS-2 on survival to 12 months, cognitive and quality of life outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Methods: Ambulance service vehicles will be randomised to either manual compression (control) or LUCAS arms. Adult patients in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, attended by a trial vehicle will be eligible for inclusion. Patients with traumatic cardiac arrest or who are pregnant will be excluded. The trial will recruit approximately 4000 patients from England, Wales and Scotland. A waiver of initial consent has been approved by the Research Ethics Committees. Consent will be sought from survivors for participation in the follow-up phase. Conclusion The trial will assess the clinical and cost effectiveness of the LUCAS-2 mechanical chest compression device. Trial Registration: The trial is registered on the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry (ISRCTN08233942)

Comparative analysis of services from soft open points using cost–benefit analysis

Soft Open Points (SOPs) are power electronic-based devices which can replace Normally Open Points (NOPs) in distribution networks. They can improve network performance by enabling controllable power transfer between adjacent feeders. This flexible meshing can provide a wide range of services, including loss reduction, reduced renewables curtailment, improved reliability, reinforcement deferral, or enabling flexibility services. This paper proposes a novel framework, based on the Cost–Benefit Analysis methodology, to quantify and compare the cost-effectiveness of SOPs for providing each of these five value streams. The framework includes the development of mathematical models that encapsulate the key variables that drive competitive SOP use cases, as well as providing detailed analysis to determine quantitative estimates for each of the parameters. Results suggest that, whilst all services could be cost-effective, that reinforcement deferral and reduced DG curtailment are most likely to find wide usage. It is also suggested that the fast response time of SOPs as compared to conventional NOPs is unlikely to be a viable value proposition for improving reliability via conventional loss of load metrics such as energy not supplied. A detailed case study demonstrates that in marginal cases, where a SOP has a similar system net benefit compared to Business-as-Usual, that all services need to be considered rather than just single value streams in isolation. It is concluded from the research that there are multiple potential competitive applications for SOPs in future distribution networks.</p

Subgenual activation and the finger of blame: individual differences and depression vulnerability.

BACKGROUND: Subgenual cingulate cortex (SCC) responses to self-blaming emotion-evoking stimuli were previously found in individuals prone to self-blame with and without a history of major depressive disorder (MDD). This suggested SCC activation reflects self-blaming emotions such as guilt, which are central to models of MDD vulnerability. METHOD: Here, we re-examined these hypotheses in an independent larger sample. A total of 109 medication-free participants (70 with remitted MDD and 39 healthy controls) underwent fMRI whilst judging self- and other-blaming emotion-evoking statements. They also completed validated questionnaires of proneness to self-blaming emotions including those related to internal (autonomy) and external (sociotropy) evaluation, which were subjected to factor analysis. RESULTS: An interaction between group (remitted MDD v. Control) and condition (self- v. other-blame) was observed in the right SCC (BA24). This was due to higher SCC signal for self-blame in remitted MDD and higher other-blame-selective activation in Control participants. Across the whole sample, extracted SCC activation cluster averages for self- v. other-blame were predicted by a regression model which included the reliable components derived from our factor analysis of measures of proneness to self-blaming emotions. Interestingly, this prediction was solely driven by autonomy/self-criticism, and adaptive guilt factors, with no effect of sociotropy/dependency. CONCLUSIONS: Despite confirming the prediction of SCC activation in self-blame-prone individuals and those vulnerable to MDD, our results suggest that SCC activation reflects blame irrespective of where it is directed rather than selective for self. We speculate that self-critical individuals have more extended SCC representations for blame in the context of self-agency

Are there disparities in the location of Automated External Defibrillators in England?

Background: Early defibrillation is an essential element of the chain of survival for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Public access defibrillation (PAD) programmes aim to place automated external defibrillators (AED) in areas with high OHCA incidence, but there is sometimes a mismatch between AED density and OHCA incidence. Objectives This study aimed to assess whether there were any disparities in the characteristics of areas that have an AED and those that do not in England. Methods: Details of the location of AEDs registered with English Ambulance Services were obtained from individual services or internet sources. Neighbourhood characteristics of lower layer super output areas (LSOA) were obtained from the Office for National Statistics. Comparisons were made between LSOAs with and without a registered AED. Results: AEDs were statistically more likely to be in LSOAs with a lower residential but higher workplace population density, with people predominantly from a white ethnic background and working in higher socio-economically classified occupations (p < 0.05). There was a significant correlation between AED coverage and the LSOA Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) (r = 0.79, p = 0.007), with only 27.4% in the lowest IMD decile compared to about 45% in highest. AED density varied significantly across the country from 0.82/km2 in the north east to 2.97/km2 in London. Conclusions: In England, AEDs were disproportionately placed in more affluent areas, with a lower residential population density. This contrasts with locations where OHCAs have previously occurred. Future PAD programmes should give preference to areas of higher deprivation and be tailored to the local community

A qualitative content analysis of retained surgical items: Learning from root cause analysis investigations

Objective To describe incidents of retained surgical items, including their characteristics and the circumstances in which they occur. Design A qualitative content analysis of root cause analysis investigation reports. Setting Public health services in Victoria, Australia, 2010–2015. Participants Incidents of retained surgical items as described by 31 root cause analysis investigation reports. Main Outcome Measure(s) The type of retained surgical item, the length of time between the item being retained and detected and qualitative descriptors of the contributing factors and the circumstances in which the retained surgical items occurred. Results Surgical packs, drain tubes and vascular devices comprised 68% (21/31) of the retained surgical items. Nearly one-quarter of the retained surgical items were detected either immediately in the post-operative period or on the day of the procedure (7/31). However, about one-sixth (5/31) were only detected after 6 months, with the longest period being 18 months. Contributing factors included complex or multistage surgery; the use of packs not specific to the purpose of the surgery; and design features of the surgical items. Conclusion Retained drains occurred in the post-operative phase where surgical counts are not applicable and clinician situational awareness may not be as great. Root cause analysis investigation reports can be a valuable means of characterizing infrequently occurring adverse events such as retained surgical items. They may detect incidents that are not detected by other data collections and can inform the design enhancements and development of technologies to reduce the impact of retained surgical items